Blog #1: Weight Loss with DDC
Question:
How can you benefit from data-driven coaching when losing weight and make sure you reach your goal by the desired time?
Method:
Time Series Forecasting
Explanation:
Let us assume you want to reach your desired weight by a certain point in time. You will receive a training and nutrition plan and record your weight and daily calories in your personal online diary. As soon as you have recorded your weight and calories in your diary at least 30 times, we can use various statistical models to forecast your weight for the next couple of weeks. Based on these results, we can adjust your training and nutrition plan so that you will reach your goal by the desired time.
Here is an example:
In this picture you can see the course of my weight during the 2021 competition preparation. The red line shows my weight as a linear function of the cumulative calorie deficit over time (=horizontal axis). On 09/30/21 I wanted to know if I was on schedule for the Swiss Championships on 10/30/21. The blue dashed line shows the predicted weight between 09/30/21 and 10/30/21. According to the model, my weight on 10/30/21 should have been 74.7 kg.
The problem? Losing weight is not a linear process.
Here you can see how the weight really progressed. At the beginning of the diet, my daily weight loss was greater than at later stages of my diet. This is a typical pattern for losing weight. You first lose a lot of water. It is only after a certain time that you actually lose body fat and this process is much slower. As you can see, the forecast I made on 09/30/21 was 76.8 kg in the non-linear model, and it was thus 2 kg higher than in the forecast made by the linear model. In fact, my weight at the end of the diet was 76.3 kg. Therefore, the non-linear model came up with a more accurate forecast.
Conclusion:
You too can benefit from data-driven coaching. Together we continuously check whether you are on schedule with the current training and nutrition plan and make the necessary adjustments.
Want to work together? Then do the online assessment for free.